淮河流域近70年极端水文气象特征分析

以淮河流域23个气象站点1951—2016年的降水数据和蚌埠水文站的径流数据为研究对象,应用线性拟合法、滑动平均法、非参数MK检验法分析了流域的降水和干旱的变化特征,并结合R/S分析法、Pearson和Spearman相关系数法分别分析了降水、干旱与径流的相关关系及长程记忆性。结果表明,除连续湿日外,淮河流域极端水文指数均呈显著增长趋势,突变年份集中在20世纪50、60年代初;近70年,年干旱频率达21. 2%,轻旱比例最高,从年、季尺度来看,冬旱最严重,年、季干旱均呈现减少趋势;最大30天、15天降水径流相关关系均呈中度相关,汛期、非汛期降水距平与径流相关关系分别呈中度和弱相关,未来4～11年,最大30天降水和径流、汛期和非汛期的降水距平及径流均呈不显著增长趋势。

Analysis of Extreme Hydrometeorological Characteristics in Huaihe River Basin in Recent 70 Years

Taking the runoff data of 23 meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) from 1951 to 2016 and the runoff data of the Bengbu hydrological station as the research objects, linear quasi-legal, sliding average and non-parametric MK test were used to analyze the characteristics of precipitation and drought in the HRB.The correlation between precipitation, drought and runoff and long-range memory was analyzed with the combination of R/ S analysis, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficient. The results show that except for continuous wet days, the extreme hydrological index of HRB showed a significant increasing trend, and the abrupt years were concentrated in the 1950s and early 1960s. In the past 70 years, the annual drought frequency reached 21.2%, and the proportion of light drought was the highest. From the annual and seasonal scales, the winter drought is the most severe, and the annual and seasonal drought show a decreasing trend. There is a moderate correlation between precipitation and runoff over a maximum of 30 and 15 days. The precipitation and runoff in flood season and non-flood season are moderate and weak respectively. In the next 4 to 11 years, the maximum 30-day precipitation and runoff, the precipitation and runoff in the flood season and the non-flood season willnot show significant growth trends.