Regression models for estimating storm runoff load and its application to Lake Kasumigaura

Regression models are proposed for accurate estimation of storm runoff load. Regression equations are obtained for the relationship between final cumulative load and flow during direct runoff by each storm event. The models are applied to estimate annual nutrients load by all influent rivers into the Lake Kasumigaura for a model year of average annual rainfall. The load in dry weather is calculated from observed data of all influent rivers. Total annual load for a year is the sum of loads in dry weather days and loads in wet weather days. The ratios of the load in a wet weather day to total annual loads are 29 percent for T‐N, 51 percent for T‐P, 53 percent for T‐COD, 22 percent for D‐N, 22 percent for D‐P and 30 percent for D‐COD.