| 允许风险分析方法在防洪安全决策中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 范子武,姜树海.允许风险分析方法在防洪安全决策中的应用[J].水利学报,2005,36(5):0618-0623. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范子武 姜树海 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京水利科学研究院,水工水力学研究所,江苏,南京,210029 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部科技创新项目(SCX2002 06) |
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| 摘 要： | 允许风险分析方法体现了“以人为本”的防洪理念。按照防洪工程漫顶失事的逻辑过程提出了防洪风险率的定量计算方法，引入了人员伤亡预测的经验公式，讨论了制定允许风险标准问题。在此基础上，应用允许风险分析方法，定量计算骆马湖的防洪风险，对骆马湖防洪安全决策进行了评价，分析了建立洪水预警系统提高防洪安全的必要性和可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 允许风险分析 防洪风险率 生命损失 防洪决策 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9350(2005)05-0618-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月20日 |
Application of tolerance risk analysis method in decision-making of flood prevention |
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| FAN Zi-wu,JIANG Shu-hai.Application of tolerance risk analysis method in decision-making of flood prevention[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2005,36(5):0618-0623. |
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| Authors: | FAN Zi-wu JIANG Shu-hai |
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| Affiliation: | Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China |
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| Abstract: | The tolerance risk analysis method is based on the idea of putting the safety of people as the most important thing. According to the lgic process of overtopping of flood defense projects a quantitative calculation method for flood prevention risk ratio is proposed and an empirical equation for predicting loss of lives is deduced. The tolerance risk criterion is discussed. The proposed method is applied to quantitatively calculate the flood defense risk of Luoma Lake, and the corresponding decision-making of flood prevention safety is evaluated. Finally, the feasibility of flood forecast system for improving the flood prevention safety is analyzed. |
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| Keywords: | tolerance risk analysis flood prevention risk ratio loss of lives decision-making of flood prevention |
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