Demand projections of petroleum products and natural gas in India |
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Authors: | Jyoti Parikh Pallav Purohit Pallavi Maitra |
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Affiliation: | 1. Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), C-50 Chhota Singh Block, Asian games Village Complex, New Delhi-110011, India;2. Research Programme on International Climate Policy, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, D-20347 Hamburg, Germany |
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Abstract: | Indian economy has moved into a dynamic phase. It is necessary to see how energy demand will grow in this phase. In this paper, econometric models are developed for the various petroleum products separately with the aim of capturing variables that are specific to the individual fuel. This study projects the demand of fuels up to 2011–2012, end period for the 11th Five Year Plan, under two scenarios of annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6% and 8%. The demand of petroleum products for the year 2011–2012 is estimated to be 147 and 162 million tons in the business as usual scenario of 6% and optimistic scenario of 8% GDP growth, respectively. Similarly, the demand of natural gas for the year 2011–2012 has been estimated to be 46 and 49 billion cubic meters for 6% and 8% growth, respectively. The projections suggest the level of preparedness that will be required from the oil and gas sector to enable India achieve the GDP growth target that it aims to. |
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Keywords: | Demand projections Petroleum products and natural gas Econometric models 11th Five Year Plan |
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