| GMDH方法在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周晓华,黄玲,刘胜永. GMDH方法在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用[J]. 电气应用, 2008, 27(6): 67-69 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周晓华 黄玲 刘胜永 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西工学院电子信息与控制工程系,545006;广西工学院电子信息与控制工程系,545006;广西工学院电子信息与控制工程系,545006 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西自然科学基金 , 广西工学院校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在时间序列预测法的基础上,将数据处理组合方法GMDH应用于中长期电力负荷预测。介绍了GMDH的基本原理,根据历史数据建立GMDH模型,通过某地区电力负荷预测实例,对电力负荷值进行了计算分析,结果表明该方法可获得较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | GMDH 中长期电力负荷预测 时间序列预测法 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-28 |
Research on Mid-Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on GMDH |
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| Zhou Xiaohua. Research on Mid-Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on GMDH[J]. Electrotechnical Application, 2008, 27(6): 67-69 |
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| Authors: | Zhou Xiaohua |
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| Affiliation: | Guangxi University of Technology |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of time series forecasting method,GM- DH is proposed to be applied into forecasting for mid-long term power load.Fundamentals of GMDH is introduced,a GMDH model is established according to the history data.And an appli- cation case of the mid-long term power load forecasting of a cer- tain area is given.Through calculation and analysis of its power loads,the result shows that the higher accuracy can be obtained by this method. |
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| Keywords: | GMDH mid-long term power load forecasting time series forecasting method |
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