天然气长输管道的定量风险评价方法

定量风险评价是天然气管道安全管理的有效方法,通过风险评价,可以将管道事故可能造成的灾害风险降低到可接受标准以下。在对天然气长输管线风险分析的基础上,指出造成事故灾害性后果的主要方式是热辐射和冲击波。对天然气管道事故率、事故后果进行了分析,得出了热辐射引起的人员死亡概率的计算方法。天然气管道的风险可以用个人风险和社会风险进行定量评价,介绍了定量计算个人风险和社会风险的方法,并结合实例进行了计算和分析。

A quantitative method of risk assessment of natural gas pipeline

The risk assessment based on quantitative method is considered as an important safety management method. The potential risk of the natural gas pipeline can be controlled under the accepted level by using the quantitative method of risk assessment. This paper focuses on developing a quantitative method for risk assessment of natural gas pipelines. The hazard of natural gas pipeline is analyzed and distinguished. The heat radiation and shock wave are the main manners which can result in disaster. And the failure rate and consequences of natural gas pipeline incident are proposed. The method for calculating the probability of individual death by heat radiation is proposed. Individual risk and social risk for sample natural gas pipeline are calculated by using this method and historical data.