灾变预测在矿山安全生产目标管理中的应用

简述了灰理论中灾变预测模型的特点及其建模过程，并将其应用于矿山安全生产目标管理中，对矿山职工工伤事故频率进行预测。通过一个实例验证了该模型的有效性，其精度良好，预测结果可靠。该模型可用于矿山企业定量预测未来的安全生产规律，为有关部门提供参考。

Application of Disastrous Forecasting in Mine Safety Objective Management

This paper briefly introduces the characteristics of disastrous forecasting model based on gray theory and its setting-up procedures, uses the model to predict the frequency of work accidents for safety management by objectives in a mining enterprise. By way of an applied example, it has been proved that the model is efficient, the precision of predication is higher and predicted results are reliable. Therefore, the model can be used to quantitatively predict the law of safety in the future production, and provide reference for related departments of a mining enterprise.