基于数理统计的配网可靠性原始参数分析

可靠性原始参数是反映配电系统及其设备运行特性的数据，它直接影响到可靠性评估结果的准确性，因此有必要对元件参数进行细致深入的统计和分析。针对可靠性评估中出现的原始参数单一的现象，提出运用t检验法分析不同区域内同一类设备原始参数的差异性，进而进行合理的分区。为了减少原始数据的随机性和强化教列的规律性，将原始数列进行平滑处理后，再运用灰色预测模型对原始参数进行预测，最后计算得到原始数据的参考值的置信区间。供电部门可以采用该方法对设备的原始参数进行统计分析，采用置信区间的参数进行可靠性评估，可使评估结果更能体现配网可靠性的真实水平。

Analysis on Original Reliability Parameters of Distribution Network Based on Mathematical Statistics Method

Original reliability parameters reflect the power equipments operating characteristics and they are the foundation and precondition for power system reliability assessment. Therefor ,it is necessory to analyze and study the parameters in detail. In order to avoid the singleness of the original reliability parameters,the t test method is proposed to analyze the difference of the same devices in different area and establishs the division of area more rationally.Aiming at decreasing the data randomness and strengthening the data regularity,smoothing processing of the original sequence is adopted,and the grey model is set up to forecast the reference value of reliability parameters.Finally the confidence interval of the reliability parameters is calculated,which is used in reliability assessment and which reflects the reliability level of distribution network more accurately.