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通过对西气东输管道设计输量的研究 ,文章阐述了天然气管道输送量的选择与天然气市场需求预测、资源储备、气田开发方案之间的关系。从我国燃气需求增长曲线和国民经济总产值增长曲线的分析对比中 ,得出燃气增长规律与国民经济总产值增长规律相似的结论 ,并以此为依据 ,对西气东输管道天然气市场需求趋势进行了预测 ,提出了西气东输市场重点开发地区是上海、浙江、江苏等地区 ,用户消费结构重点放在城市燃气和发电等方面的观点。文章在天然气用户甄别方法中提出了用户项目成功率的概念 ,为进一步开展市场量化预测、理性选择天然气管道输量研究奠定了基础。根据对市场需求与气源供应之间的供需平衡分析 ,西气东输管道输量确定为 12 0× 10 8m3 /a较为合理。

Prediction of Gas Delivery Capacity for Pipeline Design of West-East Gas Transmision

??Based on the investigation of gas delivery capacity for pipeline design of West??East Gas Transmission,the article discusses the relationship between the delivery capacity choosing of gas pipeline and the demand prediction of gas market,the resource reserve,and the development program of gas fields.According to the analysis and comparison of the increasing curves of gas demand and GDP,it is concluded that the increasing law of gas demand is similar with the increasing law of GDP.Based on the ground,the prediction is conducted for the demand trend of gas market of West??East Gas Transmission pipeline.And it is pointed out that the mainly developing areas of West??East Gas Transmission market are Shanghai,Zhejiang,and Jiangsu,and the main gas consumption is for city gas supply and power generation with gas.In the identification method of gas users,the article suggests the concept of success rate of users' projects,which is the ground for further conducting the quantified prediction of gas market and properly choosing the delivery capacity of gas pipeline.According to the balance between the market demand and the supply of gas source,it is reasonable the delivery capacity of West??East Gas Transmission pipeline is decided to 12 BCM/a.