Problems and prospects of redirecting Hungarian agriculture towards sustainable development

Two years after the start of changing the political system in Hungary, the discussions on the need for a transition in agriculture, and especially on the future prospects of agriculture, have still not ended. Experts, researchers and members of several interest groups related to agriculture still uphold extremely different opinions about the causes of the present crisis, and about the direction of future development. Questions concerning the present situation and the future of Hungarian agriculture can be answered only if we look at the problems from a broader perspective. First of all, the time-span of analysis should be expanded into both the past and the future. The present situation can be better understood if it is considered as a stage in a long-term development process. On the other hand, to speak about sustainability without looking into the future is meaningless. The application of a system theory can help to explain the need for the disintegration or decentralization of the structure of our agricultural system. If sustainable development is preferred, viable family farms have to play a dominant role in the new structure, even if at present there are no favourable conditions for them. Broadening the perspective of our analysis is also required to include the state and development of the national economy, the directions of expected changes of internal relations and external markets, including the time and effects of membership of the European Community, expected sociological and demographical trends in Hungarian society, the complex relationships of agriculture to regional development and to the environment as a whole, and the possible or required non-food and non-agricultural use of land and other natural resources.