视情维修策略下的民航发动机拆换时间预测研究

为了提供一种更合适的发动机拆换决策依据,从而可以更好地保证发动机运行安全和降低发动机维修成本。文章针对民航发动机监测参数多、拆换决策难度大的特点,分析了发动机的拆换原因,首先基于历史拆换数据,通过比例风险模型来建立由于性能衰退引起的发动机拆换控制限,并根据状态变化趋势来预测性能衰退影响下的发动机剩余在翼时间。然后结合适航指令、服务通告和时控件等时间限制,实现了对发动机拆换时间的预测。最后以CF6-80C2A5发动机机队进行了实证分析,应用结果表明了该发动机拆换时间预测方法的准确性,已有效地应用于航空公司的发动机拆换决策中。

On Prediction of Removal Time for Commercial Aero-engines Using Condition Based Maintenance Strategy

We present a more appropriate decision method for commercial aero engine,aiming at supporting engine safe operation and reducing engine maintenance cost.Duo to the fact that there are multiple parameters in engine condition monitoring and it is very difficult to make engine removal decisions,we first analyzed several key reasons for engine removal,then we establish the engine removal control limit by proportional hazards model based on history removal data.The residual time on wing due to performance deterioration was predicted based on the condition trend.The final removal time was calculated considering the time limits of airworthiness dictate,service bulletin and life limited parts.In the case study of CF6-80C2A5 engine fleet,this predicting method of engine removal time is proved to be very accurate,and it has been effectively applied to engine removal decision making in airlines.