掌握原油资源与贸易信息 优化原油采购与原油加工

世界一次能源消费不断增长,据国际能源署(IEA)预测,2030年世界一次能源需求量为165×108t油当量,2050为215×108t油当量。2030年能源消费中化石能源仍占主导地位。世界石油探明储量中,中东地区约占60%,欧佩克约占76%。世界主要国家原油储量、产量和加工能力分布不平衡。世界原油重质化劣质化趋势明显。世界炼油厂逐年减少,平均规模越来越大,炼油企业和装置结构发生明显变化,炼油工艺装置结构调整步伐加快,加氢裂化、加氢处理与焦化的加工能力还将有较大幅度增长。石油输出国大力发展炼油和石化工业。中国交通运输业和汽车工业的迅速发展推动了炼油工业的发展,但中国炼油工业面临着石油资源短缺和原油对外依存度越来越高的挑战。据IEA预测,中国2015年石油需求量为5.0×108～5.3×108t,2020年将达到5.9×108～6.4×108t,对外依存度将达到70%。

Optimize Crude Oil Procurement and Processing with Updated Information on Crude Oil Resources and Trade

The world＇s primary energy consumption is growing continuously.According to IEA＇s forecast,the world＇s primary energy demand will reach 165×10^8t of oil equivalent by 2030 and 215×10^8t of oil equivalent by 2050.By 2030,fossil fuel will remain the dominant energy source in the world＇s energy consumption.By 2030,the Middle East will hold around 60% of the world＇s total proven oil reserves and OPEC will hold around 76%.The world＇s crude oil reserves,output and processing capacity are unevenly distributed among major countries and the quality of crude oil produced worldwide is increasingly poor and heavy.The number of refineries is decreasing yearly and the average size of refineries is increasing.The structures of refining enterprises and units are changing significantly, the adjustment to the structure of refining processes and units is gaining speed and the world＇s hydrogenation cracking,hydrogenation treatment and coking capacities will continue to expand considerably.Oil exporting countries will step up their efforts to develop the refining and petrochemical industry.In China,the rapid development of the traffic sector and the automobile industry has pushed forward the growth of the refining industry;however,the Chinese refining industry is facing challenges from short oil resources and increasingly high reliance on imported crude oil.According to IEA＇s forecast,China＇s oil demand will reach 5.0×10^8-5.3×10^8t by 2015 and 5.9×10^8-6.4×10^8t by 2020 and China＇s reliance on oil imports will reach 70% by 2020.