船用核动力蒸汽系统波纹管腐蚀分析与寿命预测研究

波纹管的破裂将给反应堆的安全运行带来隐患，甚至可能引发小破口事故。腐蚀是导致波纹管破裂的重要原因，在对波纹管腐蚀成因分析的基础上，结合波纹管腐蚀样本较少的特点，采用灰色理论对波纹管的腐蚀寿命进行预测，通过建立GM（1，1）模型，递推腐蚀量的变化规律。实例表明，该方法克服了传统统计方法需要大样本的缺点，预测精度高，评估结果可信。

Corruption Analysis and Life Span Forecast Research on Sylphon Bellows of Nuclear-Powered Steam System of Ship

The fracture of the corrugated pipe has a dad effect to the operation of reactor which can cause the small-break LOCA. The corrosion is the key reason of the fracture. On the base of the analysis on corruption reason of the sylphon bellows and combine the characteristic of the limited sample point of it, the Grey theory was used in the assessment of corrosion life span of corrugated pipe in nuclear steam system. Through applying the GM (1,1) model in inferring the discipline of corrosion quantity and combining traditional statistical method, the corrosion life of steam pipe was evaluated. It indicates that the model is precise, simple and the result is reliable.