基于时序的工业用水效率测算与耗水量预测

科学计算工业生产过程中的水资源利用效率，分析并预测耗水量，对于工业用水规划十分重要，通过建立包含工业耗水变量的模型，运用随机前沿生产函数（SFA）模型对我国1953-2004年间的工业水资源利用技术效率进行了测算，分析了效率变化、技术进步指数和全要素生产率（TFP），结果表明：工业生产水资源利用效率总体说来变化平稳，呈现缓慢的上升趋势；引入工业用水技术效率因素，用误差修正模型预测工业耗水量，对未来工业耗水量预测的精确度明显提高，如2005年的耗水量预测误差仅为4．96％，而没有引入技术效率的预测的误差超过80％．

Prediction of Technical Efficiency and Water Consumption of Industrial Water in China Based on Time Series

Scientific calculation of the technical efficiency and the prediction of industrial water consumption is of great significance to Chinese industrial water planning.A model related to industrial water consumption was set up.Using a stochastic frontier analysis(SFA) model,the technical efficiency of industrial water in China during the period of 1953 to 2004 year was calculated,and the efficiency change,technical change and total factors productivity(TFP) were analysed.The results show that the technical efficiency of industrial water in China is stable but growing slowly in general,and it would be more accurate to predict future industrial water consumption to introduce the technical efficiency using error correction model(ECM).The prediction error of industrial water consumption in 2005 is just 4.96%,while the prediction error is over 80% without considering the technical efficiency.