| 规划设计学中的调查分析法18--时系列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 章俊华. 规划设计学中的调查分析法18--时系列分析[J]. 中国园林, 2004, 20(12): 72-77 |
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| 作者姓名： | 章俊华 |
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| 作者单位： | 日本千叶大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 一般在做规划时,对人口的变动及未来的预测是不可缺少的,特别是风景名胜区规划.除回归分析外,时系列分析可以清楚地表达这种倾向线的趋势,现以十渡风景名胜区人口、户数的统计结果作为应用说明的基础数据,详细阐述时系列分析数据的种类和构造,以及诸方法的概念和计算过程.
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| 关 键 词： | 风景园林 时系列分析 研究 趋势倾向要素 循环变动要素 季节变动要素 不规则变动要素 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6664(2004)12-0072-06 |
The Diagnosis Methods in Planning and Design (18)--Time Series Analysis |
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| ZHANG Jun-hua. The Diagnosis Methods in Planning and Design (18)--Time Series Analysis[J]. Chinese Landscape Architecture, 2004, 20(12): 72-77 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jun-hua |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Jun-hua |
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| Abstract: | The population variation and its forecast is indispensable in planning, especially the planning of scenic areas. Apart from the regression method, the time series analysis can clearly show this directional trend. The statistics of the population and family quantities in the Shidu Scenic Area are used as the basic data to illustrate the data types and structures of the time series analysis, the conceptions of various methods and their calculating process. |
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| Keywords: | Landscape Architecture Time Series Analysis Research Trend Cyclical component Seasonal variation Irregular variation Forecast |
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