不同接线模式下电网大停电风险研究

随着我国电网互联的不断加强，对大电网合理建设规模进行分析评价成为我国电力工业发展亟待解决的重要问题。通过计算不同规模下电网的大停电风险值变化，对电网合理建设规模进行分析评价。从大停电风险的角度出发构建电网合理建设规模风险评估指标体系，建立不同接线模式下大电网合理建设规模风险评价模型，对大电网建设的安全性进行风险评估，并以IEEE-14节点标准系统验证了模型的有效性。最后使用所建立的理论与模型对某大型同步输电网建设的合理规模进行了研究，从大停电风险方面论证了该输电网建设规模的合理性，研究表明该大型输电网的线路回数、输电线路长度均处于合理范围之内。此研究具有一定的工程实用价值。

Study on Power Grid Blackout Risk under Different Connection Modes

As the interconnection of our country’s power system becomes more and more stronger,it is an important problem to make assessment of the reasonable grid construction scale.The purpose of this study is evaluating the construction scale of power grid by calculating the blackout risk under different scales of the grid.From the view of blackout risk,the risk assessment index system and risk assessment models about various wire connection were established in this study to evaluate the rationality of grid construction scale.And the IEEE-14 bus system was used to verify the validity of the model.In the last,the assessment theory and models were applied to a particular ultra high voltage （UHV）synchronous power grid to demonstrate its reasonable construction scale in the blackout risk perspective.Research shows that the number of the large transmission line and the length of the transmission line are in the reasonable range.This method has practical value in engineering.