基于两级传播理论的舆论超网络传播分析

社交网络挖掘可以使人们更好地认识信息在网络中的传播规律，分析信息在事件中的传播特点。现有的文献研究主要集中于舆论事件社交网络的静态建模，以及针对一些共性特点的仿真验证，而对舆论事件模型结构变化的讨论较少。本文尝试从两级传播理论出发，采用三层超网络结构对舆论事件不同时段构建传播分析模型，给出舆论演化分析度量指标，挖掘超网络结构变化的特点，探索舆论酝酿期积蓄力量的潜在因素。以长生疫苗事件进行分析，发现需要在酝酿期有多样化的意见领袖不断在各个话题中进行牵引，在积累了潜在的舆论人群之后才能促成舆论爆发。

Analysis of public opinions in network communication based on the two-level communication theory

Social network mining can help people better understand the law of information dissemination and analyze the characteristics of information dissemination in events. Existing literature primarily focus on static modeling of public opinion in social network and simulation verification for some common characteristics and giving less importance to discussions on the structural change of public opinion based on events. This paper attempts to use the two-stage communication theory to construct communication analysis model for different periods (events) of public opinion based on a three-layer super-network structure. Indexes of public opinion in social network are measured by evolution analysis, the characteristics of super network structure change are uncovered, and potential factors of public opinions accumulated strength during the gestation period are explored. Taking Changsheng vaccine’s incident as an example for analysis, this paper finds that during the incubation period, diversified opinion leaders are needed to constantly feed on various topics and gather or combine potential public opinion groups before leading to the upsurge of public opinion.