水库群优化调度中的结构分析方法研究进展

在我国水库群规模日益庞大、功能结构日益复杂化的背景下,结构分析方法在水库群优化调度模型求解中占据越来越重要的地位。为全面梳理不同结构分析方法的适用性和优劣性,以及为复杂结构水库群优化调度提供高效的结构分析方法,基于水库群优化调度60余年来的研究成果,分别阐述了顺序模拟法、蓄供水判别式法、效用均衡理论法、聚合-分解法和水力关联矩阵法5种结构分析方法的研究进展。顺序模拟法逻辑直观、普适性强,蓄供水判别式法能够对发电调度中水库群的蓄供水次序快速排序,以上2种方法均适宜于串联结构水库群结构分析;效用均衡理论基于微观经济学厂商均衡理论对水库群调度方式进行优化,理论基础坚实,适用于水力关系较为独立的并联水库群;聚合-分解法包含水库群联合调度图和大系统分解协调2种形式,可与其他串并联结构分析方法联合使用,适用于大规模混联结构水库群;水力关联矩阵法则采用矩阵形式描述水库群内部两两之间关系,不受水库群结构组合的限制,因此适用于任何结构水库群。结构分析方法对于优化高效求解水库群优化调度问题至关重要,但也需要与其他环节配合才能实现,建议未来在径流预报信息利用、优化调度统计模型与物理背景耦合及混联水库群精细化调度等方向开展进一步研究。

Advances in Structural Analysis Methods for Optimal Operation of Reservoirs System

With the expansion of scale and the complication of structural functions of reservoir groups, structural analysis has been playing an increasingly important role in the optimizing dispatching of reservoirs. The aim of this study is to identify the applicability, advantages and disadvantages of different structural analysis methods and to provide an efficient structural analysis method for reservoir groups with complicated structure. On the basis of research achievements in the past six decades, we reviewed the advances in five structure analysis methods, namely, sequential simulation method, water supply discriminant method, equilibrium with utility theory, aggregation-decomposition method, and hydraulic connection method. Sequential simulation method is logical, intuitive and universal, while water supply discriminant method could quickly sort the order of reservoirs storage and supply in power generation operation. Both are suitable for cascaded reservoirs. Equilibrium with utility theory, which is based on firm equilibrium theory in microeconomics, has a solid theoretical foundation and is suitable for parallel reservoirs with relatively independent hydraulic relations. Aggregation-decomposition method involves two forms: reservoirs’ joint operation chart and large-scale system decomposition and coordination, which can be used in combination with cascaded and parallel structural analysis methods and is suitable for large-scale hybrid structural reservoir group. Hydraulic connection method describes the relationship pairwise in reservoir group by adopting matrix and is not limited by the structure of reservoir group, thus is applicable to any structural reservoir group. Structural analysis method is critical to optimize and efficiently solve reservoirs optimal operation problem, but it also needs to cooperate with other links.We suggested that further research should be carried out on the utilization of runoff forecast information, the coupling of statistical model with physical background and the refined operation of reservoir group of hybrid structures.