Artificial neural networks and statistical modeling for electronic stress prediction using thermal profiling

Electronic components are constantly under stress due to factors such as signal density, temperature, humidity, and high current and voltage. Relatively little research has emphasized stress-level prediction under voltage stress. The purpose of this paper was to develop an electronic thermal profile model for stress-level prediction utilizing neural network (NN) and statistical approaches, such as multivariate regression models. Electronic components were removed from boards, subjected to different levels of stress, then replaced. An infrared camera was then used to capture information about component temperature changes over time under normal operating and stress conditions. Statistical analysis of the captured images suggests a strong correlation between thermal profiles and voltage stress levels. Artificial neural network (ANN) and statistical approaches were used to model temperature change profiles for components that had been stressed at different levels, and their predictive ability was compared. Separate data sets were used for model development and model verification. ANN prediction rates were around 70%, compared to 30% for the statistical approach. Experiments were also conducted to evaluate the robustness of the ANN model to the presence of noise in the data. Results suggested that the ANN model was able to accommodate the presence of noise. Various backpropagation (BP) learning algorithms were also evaluated and yielded similar average error rates. A 3-2-1 ANN topology performed better than 3-3-1 or 3-2-2-1 topologies, perhaps because the 3-2-1 topology has a higher data sample to nodes ratio than the other topologies.