| 最小二乘支持向量机在光伏功率预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱永强,田军.最小二乘支持向量机在光伏功率预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2011(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱永强 田军 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 为了减少光伏发电的随机化问题对电力系统的影响,建立了基于最小二乘支持向量机的光伏功率预测模型,提前1h进行功率预测,根据储能补偿光伏输出期望值与实际输出的差额,优化储能安装容量。介绍了一种反映云层变化信息的地表太阳辐射量预测模型。采用光伏阵列的发电量、地表太阳能辐射量和气温序列分别按统一建模和时间序列建模2种方案建立了最小二乘支持向量机模型,并对训练好的模型在不同日类型下进行了测试和评估,验证了该模型和算法的有效性。结果表明,该模型不仅能够解决光伏发电的随机化问题,而且能有效减少储能安装容量。
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| 关 键 词： | 光伏功率预测 储能 最小二乘支持向量机 随机性 短期太阳辐射量 |
Application of Least Square Support Vector Machine in Photovoltaic Power Forecasting |
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| ZHU Yongqiang,TIAN Jun.Application of Least Square Support Vector Machine in Photovoltaic Power Forecasting[J].Power System Technology,2011(7). |
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| Authors: | ZHU Yongqiang TIAN Jun |
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| Affiliation: | ZHU Yongqiang,TIAN Jun(School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China) |
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| Abstract: | To reduce the impact of random power output of photovoltaic(PV) system on power system,a PV out put forecasting model based on energy storage and least square support vector machine is built.This model can forecast PV power out one hour ahead and optimize the installed capacity of energy storage device that compensates the difference between expected value of PV output and its actual output value.A forecasting model of solar irradiation on ground surface that reflects the variation information of cloud laye... |
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| Keywords: | PV power forecasting energy storage least square support vector machine randomness short-term solar irradiation forecasting |
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