水平煤层半无限开采时沉陷参数误差对下沉预计结果精度的影响

本文依据误差理论，系统地分析了水平煤层半无限开采时概率积分法、威布尔分布法和样条概率积分法的参数误差对下沉预计结果精度的影响，弄清了预计结果精度的分布规律，评述了它们的优缺点，并指出了改进措施。本文的研究结果对开采沉陷观测站设计、开采沉陷参数及计算模型的识别具有指导意义。

Effect of Parameter Errors on the Prediction Precision of Surface Subsidence

Based on the error theory.this paper systematically studies the effect ofparameter errors of the probability integration,Weibull distribution and spline--probabilityintegration methods on the prediction precision of surface subsidence under conditions ofhorizontal coal seam and semi--infinite mining.The authors find out the precision distribution of predicted results and point out their advantages,disadvantages and improvement measures.The results have a great significance to the design of observation stations and the identification of subsidence parameters and calculation models.