准噶尔盆地重点区带石油储量增长规律及勘探潜力分析

运用"油气储量增长预测系统"(HCZ模型)首次对准噶尔盆地重点区带(西北缘、腹部、东部)石油探明储量增长趋势进行了预测。西北缘为勘探历史最长、探明程度最高的区带,石油储量增长高峰出现于1992年,对应探明率为31.3%,至2055年,探明率将达到76.4%,目前已处于储量增长高峰后期;腹部和东部为勘探历史较短的区带,开始提交探明储量年代分别为1995年和1987年,截至2010年,探明程度分别为11.2%、13.4%,均处于勘探初期,石油储量增长高峰将分别出现于2023年和2025年,对应探明率分别为23.76%和28.32%,至2094年和2086年,探明率将分别达到61.2%和68.77%。根据储量增长预测基础,分别从资源勘探现状、储量增长影响因素、圈闭储备情况等因素对上述区带进行了勘探潜力和前景的分析,认为西北缘已逐步进入勘探的高成熟阶段,"十二五"末将接近储量增长高峰的极限,而此时腹部和东部将出现新一轮储量增长趋势,两者叠加将抵消西北缘储量下降的态势,保持盆地储量的稳定增长。

Analysis about Growth Law and Exploration Potential of Oil Reserves in Key Zones of Junggar Basin

The growth trend of proved oil reserves in key zones (northwestern margin, hinterland, and eastern part) of Junggar Basin was predicted for the first time, using òthe system for predicting oil and gas reserves growthó (HCZ model). The northwestern margin has the longest exploration history and the highest proved degree, of which the reserves growth peak was in 1992 with corresponding proved ratio being 31.3%. Till 2055, the proved ratio will reach 76.4%, and now the zone is at the late stage of reserves growth peak. Hinterland and eastern part have shorter history, which started submitting proved reserves in 1995 and 1987 respectively. Till 2010, the proved ratios of both zones were 11.2% and 13.4% separately. They were both at early stage of exploration, and reserves growth peak will show in 2023 and 2025, with respective proved ratio being 23.76% and 28.32%. The proved ratios will reach 61.2% and 68.77% till 2094 and 2086 separately. Based on reserves growth prediction, this paper analyzed the exploration potential and prospect of above zones in terms of resources exploration status, factors influencing reserves growth, and reservation conditions of traps, etc. It was regarded that the northwestern margin has entered into high-maturity stage of exploration, and it would approximate the peak of reserves growth by the end of the ò12th Five-Year Planó period. Meanwhile, the hinterland and the eastern part will show a new round of reserves growth trend, both of which will counteract the descending trend of the northwestern margin and keep stable growth of reserves in the Basin.