宝鸡地区降水特征分析及降水量预测

基于宝鸡气象站1961年-2015年降水实测数据,利用线性拟合、模比系数积差曲线、Mann-Kendall检验法、云模型和滑动平均-马尔可夫模型对该地区降水变化特征和降水量预测进行了全面分析。结果表明:宝鸡地区年降水量、丰水期和枯水期降水量的线性变化率分别为-11.9mm/(10a)、2.6mm/(10a)和-14.5mm/(10a),且枯水期降水量的减少趋势显著。宝鸡地区年际与年内降水量分配极不均匀,不均匀性为全年丰水期枯水期;降水量不均匀性的稳定程度为丰水期全年枯水期。丰、枯期滑动平均降水量预测值的总和较年尺度的预测值更为准确,且2016年-2020年的年降水量预测值分别为613.1mm、727.0mm、632.0mm、457.2mm和876.7mm。研究结果可为该地区旱涝灾害的防治提供科学依据。

Precipitation characteristic analysis and precipitation forecast in Baoji region

Based on the measured data of precipitation in Baoji meteorological station from 1961 to 2015, the variation characteristics of precipitation and precipitation forecast were analyzed by using the linear fitting, the ratio coefficient difference curve, the cloud model, and the moving average Markov model. Results showed that the rates of change of the annual precipitation, the precipitation in wet period and the precipitation in dry period were -11.9mm/10a, 2.6mm/10a and -14.5mm/10a, respectively. And the precipitation in dry period decreased significantly. The intra-annual precipitation and inter annual precipitation were very uneven. The degree of uneven distribution of precipitation was a whole year>rainy period>dry period, and the stability of the precipitation inhomogeneity is rainy period>a whole year>dry period. Based on the sum of the forecast value of precipitation in wet and dry season, the error was smaller than the annual scale of precipitation forecast, and the annual precipitation forecast values of 2016-2020 were 613.1mm, 727.0mm, 632.0mm, 457.2mm and 876.7mm, respectively.Research results provided scientific basis for prevention of drought and flood disasters in the region.