气候变化情景下的地下水潜在补给变化影响分析——以栾城试验站为例

了解气候变化影响下的地下水潜在补给变化对于地下水资源的科学管理与评价是非常必要的。以栾城生态试验站为典型研究区,联合应用ClimGen天气发生器和地下水补给Visual HELP模型,对未来气候变化情景下的地下水潜在补给速率进行了评估。结果显示:在降水减少10%(P)、温度上升2℃(T)以及两者同时发生(PT)三种情景下,未来(2011年-2040年)地下水多年平均补给速率相比基准(1961年-1990年)分别下降了23.33%、4.42%、26.01%,其中降水的减少对地下水入渗补给的影响尤为明显。该项研究对于指导地下水资源的科学管理与可持续开发利用具有重要意义。

The impact of climate change on groundwater potential recharge-A case study in the Luancheng experimental station

Understanding the effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge is considerably vital for the scientific management and evaluation of groundwater resources.This study combined the climate generator (ClimGen) with groundwater recharge model (Visual HELP) to assess the potential groundwater recharge rate under 3 assumed future climate scenarios (10% decrease in precipitation (P),2 ℃ increase in temperature (T),and both occurring simultaneously (P&T)) in Luancheng ecological experimental station.The results indicated that the future (2011-2040) multi-year mean recharge rates in these three scenarios would decrease by 23.33%,4.42%,and 26.01% respectively compared to the baseline (in 1961-1990).The reduction in precipitation had an especially significant effect on groundwater infiltration recharge.This study has important significance in guiding the management and sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources.