基于最优组合模型的路基沉降预测方法

通过监测获取的沉降——时间数据进行拟合曲线分析,在高速铁路路基沉降预测中得到了广泛应用。路基工程沉降——时间曲线呈现反S形,但采用常规的反S形成长曲线模型预测路基沉降时,由于受到数据样本和模型自身的限制,预测的沉降曲线并不能完全反映实际沉降的发展过程。基于此,提出了基于不同类型的反S形成长曲线的最优组合预测模型,通过赋予各个反S形曲线模型权重系数,采用最优化方法求解权重系数,得到最终的路基沉降预测公式。实际工程数据分析表明,该方法精度较高、适应性较好,可适用于高速铁路路基沉降量预测。

Embankment Settlement Prediction through an Optimization Model

The settlement prediction through the observed settlement with time data have a wide application in the high speedrail embankment construction. The settlement-time relationship of an embankment is a reverse ＂S＂ shape. The conventionalsettlement prediction method using the observed data have the limitations from the model and from the sampling data. The pre-dicted settlement can often not reflect the practical situation. An optimized model which combines the contribution of differentreverse ＂S＂ shape models is proposed in this paper. Different weights are assigned to the different sample models through theoptimization process. The settlement obtained through this method has a better prediction result and can be applied in the set-tlement prediction of high speed rail embankments.