| 负荷预测的交叉式自适应优选组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵海青,牛东晓. 负荷预测的交叉式自适应优选组合预测模型[J]. 华北电力大学学报(自然科学版), 2000, 27(4): 13-17 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵海青 牛东晓 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学基础科学系，河北保定 071003 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种适用于用电负荷预测的交叉式自适应优选组合预测模型。该模型充分考虑了用电负荷指标的特性和规律，针对用电负荷指标众多、变化各异的情况，建立预测模型库；根据标准离差，优选组合出最优模型。通过在京津唐电网的实用表明，模型具有较强的自适应性和较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预测 优选组合预测模型 灰色系统 误差分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-2691(2000)04-0013-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000-04-06 |
The Power Load Forecasting Model Based on the Combined Crossing Self-adaptable Optimization |
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| ZHAO Hai-qing,NIU Dong-xiao. The Power Load Forecasting Model Based on the Combined Crossing Self-adaptable Optimization[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University, 2000, 27(4): 13-17 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Hai-qing NIU Dong-xiao |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the combinatorial forecasting model based on the crossing self-adaptable optimization is proposed for the power load. The characteristics of the various loading indices are fully considered. Because of the variable conditions and too many indices, a database for the forecast models has been set up. Based on the standard deviation method, the optimum model can be selected. With the application in the power net of Beijing-Jin-Tang region, it is indicated that the model presents better self-adaptability and accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | load forecast optimization combinatorial prediction model gray system error analysis |
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