复杂工程系统概念设计技术风险分析方法

复杂工程系统概念设计是设计过程中最具创造性的阶段,需要进行大量的综合权衡工作。技术风险分析是这一过程中必须予以重视的方面。在总结现有技术风险分析方法的基础上,指出了其不足,提出了适合概念设计阶段特点的技术风险分析方法,主要思想是采用质量功能配置方法,将用户需求分解至技术需求以确定技术风险源及相对重要性,再结合技术风险评价量化指标,采用加权综合模型得到系统技术风险。通过算例说明该法应用情况。所提出的方法为建立系统化、结构化的复杂工程系统技术风险分析方法提供了可能。

A Method of Technology Risk Analysis for Conceptual Design of Complicated Engineering System

Conceptual design of complicated engineering system is the most creative design phase in the process of design, in which integration tradeoff is required and the technology risk analysis must be attached importance. On the basis of summarizing the existing method of technology risk analysis, the paper not only points out the shortcoming, but also puts forward the method of technology risk (analysis) that is suited to the characteristics of the conceptual design phase. Its main idea is to adopt the method of quality function deployment (QFD) to deploy the user requirement to technology requirement, and to ascertain the technology risk resource and the relative weight. And then by recombining the technology risk quantitative index, the systemic technology risk is determined by adopting the integrated model. Application of the method is illuminated through examples. The suggested method makes it possible to build the systematic method of technology risk analysis for complicated engineering system technology.