潜艇对水面舰艇威胁评估模型的设计思路

为了提高水面舰艇反潜作战指挥决策水平，降低反潜过程中遭受敌潜艇反击的可能性，分析了潜艇对水面舰艇威胁评估的必要性，给出了威胁评估的目的和原则，提出了潜艇对水面舰艇威胁评估模型的设计思路，详细论述了威胁评估结构和评估步骤，并重点对攻击意图推理和攻击能力评估2个子模型进行了深入探讨，为实现潜艇对水面舰艇威胁评估提供了参考。

An Idea of Designing a Submarine Threat Evaluation Model for Surface Vessels

To improve decision-making ability of a surface vessel against a submarine,so as to decrease the counterat-tack possibility of the submarine in the process of antisubmarine warfare,the necessity of evaluation of submarine threat against surface vessel is analyzed,and the purpose and principle of the threat evaluation are discussed.An idea of de-signing a submarine threat evaluation model for surface vessels is put forward.The steps and architecture of the threat evaluation model are described in detail,and two main submodels,i.e.the attack intention inference model and the at-tack ability evaluation model,are discussed intensively.The idea may offer a reference for realizing submarine threat evaluation for surface vessels.