| 基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的输电网灵活规划 |
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| 引用本文： | 麻常辉,梁军,杨永军,郭方正,刘亚丽. 基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的输电网灵活规划[J]. 电网技术, 2009, 33(4): 99-102 |
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| 作者姓名： | 麻常辉 梁军 杨永军 郭方正 刘亚丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 麻常辉,杨永军,郭方正,MA Chang-hui,YANG Yong-jun,GUO Fang-zheng(山东电力科学研究院,山东省,济南市,250002);梁军,刘亚丽,LIANG Jun,LIU Ya-li(山东大学,电气工程学院,山东省,济南市,250061) |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论了电力市场环境下的不确定因素，提出输电规划风险因子的概念，基于风险因子建立了输电网灵活规划模型，然后基于蒙特卡罗仿真和遗传算法对该模型进行寻优求解。该方法允许规划者指定输电规划风险因子阈值，从而使输电网规划方案在未来的不确定性环境下具有更好的适应性。算例结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 输电网规划 电力市场 遗传算法 蒙特卡罗仿真 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-04-02 |
Monte Carlo Simulation Based Flexible Planning of Power Transmission Network |
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| MA Chang-hui,LIANG Jun,YANG Yong-jun,GUO Fang-zheng,LIU Ya-li. Monte Carlo Simulation Based Flexible Planning of Power Transmission Network[J]. Power System Technology, 2009, 33(4): 99-102 |
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| Authors: | MA Chang-hui LIANG Jun YANG Yong-jun GUO Fang-zheng LIU Ya-li |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Shandong Electric Power Research Institute;Jinan 250002;Shandong Province;China;2.School of Electrical Engineering;Shandong University;Jinan 250061;China |
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| Abstract: | After the analysis on uncertain factors in electricity market environment, a concept of risk factor in transmission planning is proposed. Based on the proposed risk factor, a flexible transmission planning model is built; then by use of Monte Carlo simulation and genetic algorithm (GA), the built model is optimized and solved. Monte Carlo simulation method allows the planner specifying the threshold of risk factor for transmission planning, thus it makes the transmission planning scheme possessing better adaptability in future uncertain environment. Results of calculation examples show that the proposed method is feasible and effective. |
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| Keywords: | transmission planning electricity market genetic algorithm Monte Carlo simulation |
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