南京地区春节负荷特性分析及其预测方法

研究分析了南京市春节用电负荷曲线的形状、走势和特点，综合考虑天气、历史负荷等对春节负荷变化的影响，提出了一种简便的负荷预测方法。该方法通过选取气候条件相似的双休日来预测春节日最大负荷，然后根据日负荷曲线百分比值计算出各点负荷值，工作量较小，预测精度较高。算例表明，这是一种行之有效的春节负荷预测方法。

LOAD CHARACTERISTICS ANALYSIS AND LOAD FORECASTING DURING SPRING FESTIVAL IN NANJING DISTRICT

The shape of the load curve during Spring Festival in Nanjing district, its varying trend and characteristics are analyzed. Considering the influence of whether, historical load and other factors on the variation of load during Spring Festival, a simple and convenient load forecasting method is given, in which the maximum daily load during the Spring Festival is forecasted by selecting the historical load of days-off with similar climatic conditions, then according to the percentage of daily load the load values at different hours are calculated. The advantages of the presented method are less working capacity and higher forecasting accuracy, the results of calculation examples show that this method is effective.