协同滑坡预测预报模型的改进及其应用

由于原始协同模型中将第一个数据点作为已知条件缺乏足够的论证,可能导致预测预报精度较低,故对原始协同模型进行了改进,推导了改进的协同模型位移预测值和滑坡发生时间预报值的计算公式；另外,根据原始协同模型中以速度最大值作为滑坡时间预报判据缺乏合理性,以加速度最大值作为预报判据更加符合滑坡力学机制的结论,推导了协同模型加速度最大值预报判据预报值的计算公式。基于推导的公式,编写了Matlab程序进行计算,一些滑坡实例的协同模型预测预报结果表明：①与原始协同模型的预测预报结果相比,改进模型的位移预测精度更高、预报的滑坡发生时间更早,且更接近于滑坡实际发生时间；②对于速度和加速度最大值两种不同判据的滑坡时间预报结果,加速度最大值判据的预报时间早于速度最大值判据的预报时间,且其预报准确度较高；③改进的模型加速度最大值判据的预报时间较准确,且稍早于滑坡实际发生时间,故能起到提前预报的作用。因此,改进协同模型优于原始模型,加速度最大值判据优于速度最大值判据,用改进模型加速度最大值判据进行预报是可行的,且预报效果较好。

Improvement and application of synergetic forecast model for landslides

Since it has insufficient demonstration of theoretical basis of taking the first displacement data as the known condition, the original synergetic model is improved. Based on the improved model, a formula for displacement prediction and landslide time is deduced. In addition, the analysis results indicate that taking the maximum velocity as the forecast criterion of landslide time in the original synergetic model lacks rationality, and taking the maximum acceleration as the forecast criterion is more in accordance with the mechanism of landslides. Then the formula for the forecast value of landslide time based on the maximum acceleration criterion of synergetic model is deduced. Based on the deduced formulas mentioned above, the original and improved synergetic models and the two kinds of criteria are applied to the time forecast of some examples of actual landslides by using MATLAB software. The prediction and forecast results indicate that: (1) the forecast time of the improved synergetic model is closer to the actual occurrence time of landslides, and earlier than that of the original model. The precision of displacement prediction of the improved model is higher than that of the original model; (2) as for the forecast results of two kinds of criteria, the forecast time of the maximum acceleration criterion is earlier than that of the maximum velocity criterion, and its forecast error is smaller than that of the maximum velocity criterion; and (3) the forecast time of the improved model based on the maximum acceleration criterion is very closer and a little earlier than the actual occurrence time of landslides, and it can play a role in early warning. So, the improved model is better than the original one, and the maximum acceleration criterion is better than the maximum velocity one. The application of the improved model based on the maximum