基于锈胀开裂路径的混凝土构件耐久性能概率预测模型及应用

基于混凝土锈胀开裂过程的随机性，提出了一种预测钢筋锈蚀程度、锈胀裂缝开展状况及承载力退化程度时变特性的路径概率模型,并编制了计算程序,能有效评估和预测氯离子侵蚀、混凝土碳化及两者耦合作用环境下钢筋锈蚀状况、锈胀裂缝宽度开展及构件承载力退化程度在不同时段的概率分布，实现了混凝土构件从有害物质侵蚀、钢筋锈蚀、混凝土开裂、钢筋锈蚀加剧、混凝土裂缝宽度增大到构件承载力下降的性能劣化全过程的数值模拟。可预测的性能特征参数包括钢筋样本锈蚀百分比，锈蚀率，混凝土开裂面积百分比，裂缝宽度及构件承载力退化百分比。预测结果与现场检测获得的统计结果吻合良好，验证了该模型的可靠性和有效性。图18表5参18

Corrosion-crack path based probabilistic prediction model on durability behavior of reinforced concrete elements and application

A path probability model (PPM) is proposed to predict the stochastic corrosion-crack and load capability degradation process of reinforced concrete (RC) structures with time. The time-dependent probability distribution of reinforcement corrosion ratio, crack width and load capability loss of RC concrete in carbonation, chloride penetration or coupling-effect environment can be estimated effectively by numerical calculation. Therefore it enables the computer simulation of the whole deterioration process of RC elements from harmful mediums erosion, corrosion initiation of reinforcement, corrosion induced concrete crack, corrosion and crack propagation to load capability reduction. Behavioral parameters include percentage of corroded steel samples of elements, steel corrosion ratio, area percentage of cracked concrete, crack width and load capability reduction ratio. The prediction results are proved reasonable and effective by statistics information from field data of existing concrete structure.18Refs.In Chinese.