中压配电网中长期负荷预测实践

负荷预测是电力网络规划的基础，预测方法的选择是否合理直接影响负荷预测结果以及电网规划水平。因此，对于具有不同特性的供电网络应采用相应的负荷预测方法，以上海市某10kV供电地区的3个典型地块作为配电网中长期负荷预测研究对象，通过详细分析待预测地块的特点选择合适的预测方法，并给出3个地块2001－2006年的负荷预测结果，从而为中压配电网中长期负荷预测工作提供有价值的参考。

Mid-long term power load forecasting of mid-voltage distribution network

Power load forecast is the base of power grid planning.The rationality of method selec-tion directly affects the results of the prediction,and then impacts the quality of the power grid planning.Different forecasting methods should be selected for the power grids with different pro-perties.Three typical areas in Shanghai are taken as an example of10kV mid-long term power load forecasting.The properties of the three typical areas are analyzed and the appropriate methods are selected.The forecasting results from2001to2006are given.