天然气市场化进程中储气服务价值变化研究

在我国天然气市场化改革的推进下,地下储气库商业化运营时的金融价值会发生相应的变化,其变化方式尚未进行定量研究.因此,本文将天然气市场化程度量化为价格波动性、市场回归性和交易周期三个量化指标,使用最小二乘蒙特卡洛法对天然气市场化改革进程中的储气服务金融价值进行了数值研究.计算结果表明:随着天然气价格波动性的增强,储气服务...

Financial value variation of gas storage service in the process of natural gas marketization

With the process of natural gas marketization reformation in China, the financial value of gas storage services will change correspondingly. This work divides the marketization standard into three parameters: the price volatility, the market reversion rate, and the trading period. We quantitatively investigated the variation of gas storage financial value with the marketization using the least squares Monte-Carlo method. The results indicate that with increasing volatility, the financial value of gas service increases significantly. With increasing market competitors, the reversion of the price is increased, and the corresponding financial value increases rapidly first, and keeps still after reaching a certain standard. In the low reversion condition, the financial value changes irregularly with the trading period. However, in the high reversion condition, the financial value decreases with larger trading period. In general, with increasing natural gas marketization standard, the financial value of gas storage service is significantly increased.