| Abstract: | Based on fuzziness and randomness, an evaluation model for water shortage risk is developed. Firstly, construct a membership function to evaluate the fuzziness of water resources system; secondly, build a logistic regression model to simulate and forecast the occurrence probability of water shortage risk; thirdly, develop an evaluation model for water shortage risk based on fuzzy probability; finally, identify sensitive factors of water shortage risk by discriminate analysis. As an example, water shortage risks of Beijing from 1979 to 2005 are analyzed, and the result shows that the model is reliable. There are four kinds of main risk factors, such as total water resources, sewage discharge, agricultural water consumption and domestic water consumption. After taking measures of reclaimed water reuse and South-to-North Water Transfer Project, water shortage risks of Beijing in 2010 and 2020 are reduced to low risk. |
