油田稳产界限分析方法研究

统计分析国内外47个结束稳产期的油田实际资料，研究了油田稳产期的特征和一般规律，应用统计预测方法建立了稳产时间与稳产阶段采油速率、稳产时间与剩余可采储量采油速率的定量关系。只要能确定合理的采油速率，就可以保证油田较长时间稳产，认为保持可采储量采油速率2.5%、剩余可采储量采油速率8%，是油田至少稳产10a的界限经验值。从油藏工程原理出发，依据油田开发特点，研究了确定保持油田稳产的合理采油(液)速率的方法，对埕北油田、大庆油田进行了实例分析。图3表1参4（张永庆摘）

An analysis method of stable production limits for oil fields

On the basis of 47 practical data from the oil field that stable production period has been finished, this paper makes some research on the stable production time and oil recovery rate (annual recovery percentage) of remaining recoverable reserves and the oil recovery rate during the stable production period, the progressively decreasing ratio of output and the regularity of changing in oil recovery rate during the stable production stage. By using statistic prediction method, the rational relations among these indexes are established. According to the research, keeping oil recovery rate of recoverable reserves at 2.5% and keeping oil recovery rate of remaining recoverable reserves at 8% are regarded as a limited empirical value for the oilfield to keep stable production for ten years. The reality of oilfield development shows that the period of stable production can be kept for a longer time if a reasonable rate of oil recovery is defined. From the theory of reservoir engineering and according to the developing characteristics in this oil field, this paper makes a research on the defined method on reasonable rate of oil recovery for keeping the stable production in the oilfield. By analyzing two examples from the oil field, this method is proved to be very practical for guiding the reasonable development of oil fields, and can become a reference to reservoir engineering technicians.