Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break |
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Authors: | Carsten Trenkler Pentti Saikkonen Helmut Lütkepohl |
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Affiliation: | 1. University of Mannheim;2. University of Helsinki;3. European University Institute, Florence |
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Abstract: | Abstract. A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. Our test is not a likelihood ratio test but the deterministic terms including the broken trends are removed first by a generalized least squares procedure. Then, a likelihood ratio‐type test is applied to the adjusted series. The asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived and it is shown by a Monte Carlo experiment that the test has better small‐sample properties in many cases than a corresponding Gaussian likelihood ratio test for the cointegrating rank. Moreover, response surface techniques can be used to easily obtain p‐values of the test for any possible break date. |
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Keywords: | Cointegration structural break vector autoregressive process error correction model C32 |
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