灰色理论和马尔可夫相融合的粮食产量预测模型

鉴于根食产量受多种复杂因素的影响并具有较大的随机性和波动性，建立了一种灰色理论和马尔可夫相融 合的粮食产量预测模型。首先采用灰色关联法筛选粮食产量影响因子，然后将其输入到灰色系统中构建粮食产量的 灰色预测模型，最后使用马尔可夫模型对灰色模型的粮食产量预测结果的残差值进行修正，以提高粮食产量预测精 度。仿真结果表明，提出的预测模型具有较好预测的精度，完全能满足粮食产量预测精度的要求。

Grain Yield Prediction Model Based on Grey Theory and Markvo

The grain yield is influenced by many complex factors, and it has the characteristics of random and fluctua- lion, so this paper proposed a grain yield prediction model based on grey theory and Markov model. Firstly, the grey re- lational grade was used to screen influencing factor to build the grain yield prediction based on grey model, and then the Markov process was used to modify the forecasting error, making the prediction accuracy increases greatly. hhe simula- lion results show that the proposed algorithm has better prediction accuracy, and the model can satisfy the demand in prediction precision.