未来10年中国矿山铜供应能力分析

中国铜资源稀缺且分布相对集中。建国以来,矿山铜产量增长迅速,但远不能满足下游行业需求;同时,我国矿山铜产业布局和精炼铜产业布局并不匹配,一些省区需大量外购铜精矿。本文基于资源、采选技术、产业政策等方面的假设条件,考虑近10年实际产量变化趋势、保有资源储量的利用程度、主产区和资源集中区资源储量与产量的匹配度、资源禀赋条件、未来矿产资源需求量等因素对未来我国矿山铜的年供应能力进行预测。分析结果表明,西藏矿山铜供应能力增长潜力巨大,是未来我国铜矿资源供应的一个主要增长点;预计到2020年,我国矿山铜产量仍将继续保持上升趋势;此后,矿山铜产能增长受限,将在一段时期内保持稳定。

Chinese copper mining supply capacity in the next 10 years

In China, copper resources are scarce and relatively concentrated. Since the founding of new China, mine production has increased rapidly, but cannot satisfy the demand for downstream industries; at the same time, refined copper industrial layout and mine copper industrial layout is not matching, some provinces require lots of purchased copper concentrate. In this paper, based on some consumptions such as resources, mining technology, industrial policy, to forecast the future copper ore supply capacity in China , considering the actual production trends in recent 10 years, degree of utilization of reserves, the resource reserves and production matching degree of maintain reserves areas and production areas, resources conditions, the future demand for mineral resources and other factors. The analysis results show that, copper ore supply capability growth in Tibet has great potential, is a major growth point of China"s copper resources supply in the future; it is expected that by 2020, China copper mine production will continue to maintain an upward trend; thereafter, copper mine production growth is limited, will remain stable over a period of time.