港口水域LNG罐箱运输定量风险评价

船载LNG罐箱在航道拥挤的港口水域内运输为一动态危险源，一旦发生事故涉及面广，危害严重。基于定量风险评价的基本原理及公路危险化学品罐车运输定量风险评价，结合港口水域船舶运输特点，提出了港口水域船载LNG罐箱运输定量风险评价的一般方法，并构建了个人风险和社会风险计算模型。以某两个港口水域LNG罐箱船舶运输为例：由个人风险等值线可知LNG罐箱在两港口水域内运输的个人风险等级均在10^-9~10^-7之间，相当于自然灾害的风险；由社会风险曲线可知，死亡人数大于或等于N的累积频率在10^-8~10^-5之间，即在可接受风险标准线和不可接受风险标准线之间的区域；通过两个港口个人风险和社会风险对比分析，不仅可为LNG罐箱水路运输路线优化选择提供定量依据，而且对于港口水域LNG罐箱运输风险分析、安全管理及应急预案的制定等都具有实际意义。

Quantitative risk assessment approach in LNG tank shipping container in port water area

Accidents will easily happen at any time to the shipping LNG tank containers especially when transporting close to the busy port water area, it will surely brings about serious damage in the event of an accident. Based on the basic principle of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and its application on transporting tankers by road containing hazardous chemical products, this study put forward a general method of QRA on the shipping LNG tank containers close to port waters, and built up two calculation models on individual risk and social risk respectively. Through application of the QRA method to the shipping LNG tank containers at two different ports, this paper arrives at the following conclusions: a. the individual risk values are between 109 and 107, and risk level equal to natural disasters such as earthquake risk through individual risk contour, that means the transport risk of LNG is acceptable; b. the cumulative frequency value are between 108 and 105 for number of deaths ≥ N, that means that social risk points almost located between the acceptable risk standards and unacceptable risk standards zone, and some risk points being on the unacceptable risk curve indicates that the transport social risk is very large from social risk F N curves, so some countermeasures should be taken earlier before any damage is to occur. Through comparison analysis on two cases of study, the optimal route for the shipping LNG tank containers is obtained by the QRA method, which will provide practical reference for designers to ensure the port safety management and adopt emergency rescue plans in time.