| 考虑风电接入的超短期阻塞概率动态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张国强,张伯明,孙宏斌,吴文传.考虑风电接入的超短期阻塞概率动态预测[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(13):16-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张国强 张伯明 孙宏斌 吴文传 |
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| 作者单位： | 电力系统国家重点实验室,清华大学电机系,北京市100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了接入风电场后的区域电网输电阻塞概率预测问题,提出了一种边界潮流优化算法和一种超短期输电阻塞概率动态预测方法。应用概率分布表示风电接入带来的不确定性,采用优化潮流作为电网潮流的计算框架,通过基于对偶抽样的蒙特卡洛仿真和边界潮流优化算法获取断面潮流的概率分布及边界,然后预测输电断面的阻塞概率。IEEE 39节点和IEEE 118节点系统的算例表明,所提出的阻塞概率动态预测方法是有效的。
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| 关 键 词： | 风电接入 输电阻塞 边界潮流 蒙特卡洛仿真 对偶抽样 |
| 收稿时间： | 8/28/2009 5:29:10 PM |
| 修稿时间： | 6/19/2010 3:00:42 PM |
Ultra-short Term Probabilistic Forecast of Transmission Congestion Dynamics Considering Wind Power Integration |
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| ZHANG Guoqiang,ZHANG Boming,SUN Hongbin,WU Wenchuan.Ultra-short Term Probabilistic Forecast of Transmission Congestion Dynamics Considering Wind Power Integration[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2010,34(13):16-18. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Guoqiang ZHANG Boming SUN Hongbin WU Wenchuan |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Guoqiang,ZHANG Boming,SUN Hongbin,WU Wenchuan (State Key Lab of Power Systems,Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China) |
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| Abstract: | The transmission congestion probability forecasting for power systems with high level wind power integration is researched,and an optimal boundary power flow and a probabilistic dynamic forecasting method for ultra-short term transmission congestion are developed.Probability distribution is applied to express the uncertainty due to wind power integration.The proposed forecasting method applies the optimal power flow algorithm as the section power flow calculation framework,and obtains the boundary and proba... |
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| Keywords: | wind power integration transmission congestion boundary load flow Monte Carlo simulation antithetic variable sampling |
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