风电场风速概率分布参数计算方法的研究

风电场风速概率分布体现了风能资源统计特性的重要指标。在认为风速服从两参数Weibuu分布前提下，提出了应用极大似然法根据实测的风速数据求解风速概率分布参数，由此估算出能直接体现风能资源状况的风能特征指标值。通过比较由风速概率分布推算出风能特征指标的估计值与由历史风速数据序列获得的实测值，说明极大似然法计算精度高，Weibuu分布作为风电场风速统计模型能准确地拟合风能的实际情况，具有实用价值，为风电场规划设计提供重要参考。

STUDY ON THE ALGORITHM TO THE PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS OF WIND SPEED IN WIND FARMS

The probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed in wind farms are important indices that indicate wind energy statistical characteristics. A new method based on maximum likelihood estimation is presented in this paper in which probabilistic distribution of wind speed is calculated on the premise of wind speed Weibull distribution. Then the wind energy characteristic indices reflecting directly the wind energy resource are calculated with the Weibull distribution. Comparison is made between the wind energy characteristic indices calculated with probabilistic distribution of wind speed and the indices obtained from the historical wind speed time series. The results show that Weibull distribution function fits experimental wind speed data very well, and the proposed method is of great precision. This model is rational and practical, may provide important reference for the planning and design of wind farms.