矿山地表移动ARMA预测模型

以某矿区一个监测点2001-2010年地表移动监测数据为样本，对其进行了统计分析。分析结果表明：该样本数据的自相关函数(AC)和偏自相关函数(PAC)都是拖尾的，符合ARMA(p，q)模型。在此基础上，应用EViews软件进行了模型的参数估计和模型检验工作，建立了该矿区地表移动ARMA预测模型。通过对模型预测值与实测值的比较，模型预测显示了良好的准确性，特别是在时间步长较短的情况下，可以大大提高矿山地表移动预测的精度。

ARMA prediction model of ground surface movement in mine area

Ground movement data of a monitoring point from 2001 to 2010 in a mining area were analyzed by statistical methods.The results show that the autocorrelation function(AC) and partial autocorrelation function(PAC) of the sample data are clearly tail dragged,which meet with ARMA(p,q) model.On this basis,parameters estimation and checking of model was done by the software EViews,ARMA prediction model of ground surface movement was established.Through comparing the forecasting results from the model with the monitoring data,it shows that the prediction model is a useful method with good precision,especially under short time step prediction.