可燃气云爆炸事故后果的概率分析

对事故后果进行分析．是安全评价的重要内容。可燃气体泄漏后发生蒸气云爆炸是一种重要的事故类型,由于人们对事故后果认识的局限、环境的影响、以及事故发展过程的复杂性,VCE后果分析中许多参数未能准确定义,部份输入参数取值具有随机性,不同取值使最终的分析结果相差很大。本文提出了一种事故后果的概率分析方法。通过事故的后果(死亡半径)及其发生的概率来反映后果严重程度,并基于蒙特卡罗模拟方法来计算事故后果的发生概率。本文对给定发生概率时如何确定死亡半径也进行了分析,采用基于支持向量机(SVM)的非线性回归估计方法对死亡半径进行估计。分析了VCE后果分析模型中的随机性参数及其取值,结合具体的应用实例,说明了该方法在LPG储罐蒸气云爆炸后果分析中的应用。

Probabilistic consequence analysis for vapor cloud explosion of flammable gas

Consequence analysis is very important for risk evaluation. Vapor cloud explosion ( VCE) is one of the main accident types of flammable gas. Because of the limitation of people's knowledge about accident consequence, influence of natural environment, and complex process of the development of an accident, some parameters of the VCE models can not be precisely defined, so that different input values can make great difference in the final results. A probabilistic consequence analysis method based on Monte-Carlo simulation ( MCS) is proposed to help analyze the influence of an accident. How to evaluate the fatality radius when its probability is given is also analyzed, a regression estimate method based on Support Vector Machine ( SVM) is proposed to solve this problem. The consequence severity can be reflected by the extent of damage (fatality radius, FR) and its related probability. Input arguments which have stochastic characteristic and their probability distributions are analyzed, and the application of the probabilistic consequence analysis method for VCE of LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) is illustrated.