| 通过流量放大减小水文模拟与预报不确定性的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄淑娴,林凯荣,刘祖发.通过流量放大减小水文模拟与预报不确定性的应用研究[J].水力发电,2011,37(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄淑娴 林凯荣 刘祖发 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东 广州 510275;华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东 广州 510275 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50809078、50839005); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3161395) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用TOPMODEL模型,采用普适似然不确定估计(GLUE)方法,以属于半干旱地区的东湾流域为例,探讨径流系数在水文模拟与预报中的影响作用。通过其影响来提高径流系数较低地区的模拟精度,减小水文模拟与预报的不确定性。研究发现,模拟精度随着径流系数增大而提高,并在径流系数为0.5附近达到峰值后逐渐降低。基于此通过流量放大的改进方法进行东湾流域的水文模拟,改进后的结果有较大改善。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流系数 流量放大 不确定性 GLUE方法 TOPMODEL |
Research and Application of the Discharge Amplification Method in Reducing Uncertainty of Hydrological Modeling Estimation and Forecast |
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| Huang Shuxian,Lin Kairong,Liu Zufa.Research and Application of the Discharge Amplification Method in Reducing Uncertainty of Hydrological Modeling Estimation and Forecast[J].Water Power,2011,37(9). |
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| Authors: | Huang Shuxian Lin Kairong Liu Zufa |
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| Affiliation: | Huang Shuxian1,2,Lin Kairong1,Liu Zufa1,2(1.Center of Water Resource and Environment Research,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong,China,2.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes,China) |
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| Abstract: | Taking the Dongwan Watershed in a semi-arid area as a case,the effects of runoff coefficient in hydrological modeling estimation and forecast are analyzed by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation(GLUE)method based on TOPMODEL for enhancing the simulation accuracy in the catchments with a lower runoff coefficient and reducing the uncertainty of hydrological modeling estimation and forecast.The results show that the simulation accuracy will be improved with the increase of runoff coefficient... |
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| Keywords: | runoff coefficient discharge amplification uncertainty GLUE TOPMODEL |
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