昭通横江流域年径流预测

针对昭通横江由南到北贯穿昭通全境,水资源量丰富,但南北差异大,南部少、北部多的特点,根据流域内水文站实测年径流、大气环流指数、海温指数及其他指数等资料系列,采用多元回归分析法拟合1981—2010年径流,建立了预测模型,验证、预测分析了2011—2016年径流量。结果表明:干流控制站预测精度高于干流上段及支流代表站,水利工程建设等人类活动影响是导致出现这样结果的主要原因;多元回归分析在横江流域径流预测中具有一定的适应性,但因指标的差异及相关参数可获取性的差异,预测结果存在区域间、等级间的差别。

Prediction of annual runoff over Hengjiang River Basin in Zhaotong City

The Hengjiang River, which flows through Zhaotong City from south to north, has abundant water resources. However, the water resources are unevenly distributed in the river basin, with a large quantity in the north and a small quantity in the south. Based on these characteristics, the runoff of the study area from 1981 to 2010 was simulated with the multiple regression analysis method, according to the observed annual runoff from hydrological stations in the river basin, the atmospheric circulation index, the SST index, and other indices. A runoff prediction model was established to predict the annual runoff over the period from 2011 to 2016. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the main stream control stations was higher than that of the upstream and tributary stations, which was attributed to water conservancy project construction and other human activities. This study suggests that multiple regression analysis is applicable to the runoff prediction for the Hengjiang River Basin, but the prediction results are various in different regions and at different levels, due to the differences in indices and accessibility of relevant parameters.