全球升温控制在2℃以内目标下中国能源与排放情景研究

近几年来,全球到2100年将自工业化以来温度上升控制在2℃的目标已经达成共识。但是未来如何实现全球2℃升温控制目标是目前各国研究机构需要答复的问题,也是IPCC第五次评估报告的重点。近期全球几个研究项目已经着重利用模型分析全球2℃目标排放途径。中国在全球眼中的角色很重要。本文给出了我们利用模型分析中国在全球框架下实现2℃目标的排放情景的主要因素,同时讨论了中国实现2℃排放情景的可行性。研究发现,如果全球要实现2℃升温控制目标,中国需要将CO2排放在2025年之前达到峰值,而且中国实现这样的排放途径也是可能的。近期技术进步、对低碳发展的投资潜力、中国走向低碳发展的政策环境,为中国在2025年实现排放峰值提供了基础。

Research on China Energy and Emission Scenarios in the Target of Global Temperature Increase Control within 2 Degree Celsius

Globally 2 degree Celsius target by 2100 has been confirmed in the international negotiation process in recent years. But how to realize the future global warming target of two degrees Celsius control is the question that needs all of research institutions to answer, and also becomes the focus of IPCC fifth assessment report. Recently, the IPCC has called the research teams to analyze the possible pathway by modeling, policies options, and cost-benefit analysis for GHG mitigation. China＇s CO2 emission from energy and cement process has already accounted for nearly 24 % of global emission, and the trend is expected to keep increasing. The role of China in the global GHG mitigation is crucial. This paper presents the scenario analysis of China＇s CO2 emission in the background of global 2 degree Celsius target, and discussed the feasibility for lowering CO2 emission scenario in China. The finding says that it is possible for China to limit CO2 emission, and reaching emission peak before 2025, which make the global 2 degree Celsius target feasible. And recent progress of key technologies, availability for further investment in low carbon, policy implementation will make it more great possibility for China to take the pathway of low-carbon emission development. This will lay the foundation for China to achieve emission peak in 2025.