An Empirical Approach to Characterizing Risky Software Projects Based on Logistic Regression Analysis

During software development, projects often experience risky situations. If projects fail to detect such risks, they may exhibit confused behavior. In this paper, we propose a new scheme for characterization of the level of confusion exhibited by projects based on an empirical questionnaire. First, we designed a questionnaire from five project viewpoints, requirements, estimates, planning, team organization, and project management activities. Each of these viewpoints was assessed using questions in which experience and knowledge of software risks are determined. Secondly, we classify projects into “confused” and “not confused,” using the resulting metrics data. We thirdly analyzed the relationship between responses to the questionnaire and the degree of confusion of the projects using logistic regression analysis and constructing a model to characterize confused projects. The experimental result used actual project data shows that 28 projects out of 32 were characterized correctly. As a result, we concluded that the characterization of confused projects was successful. Furthermore, we applied the constructed model to data from other projects in order to detect risky projects. The result of the application of this concept showed that 7 out of 8 projects were classified correctly. Therefore, we concluded that the proposed scheme is also applicable to the detection of risky projects.