考虑雷电天气的大电力系统可靠性评估

雷电天气会导致输电线路故障率增加，对大电力系统可靠性评估有重要影响。针对不同雷电水平下的输电线路具有不同的故障率，依据地闪密度划分雷电水平区域，分区建立输电线路故障率模型，提出一种基于蒙特卡洛抽样原理，在考虑雷电天气下的大电力系统可靠性评估方法。该方法分别对雷电天气和输电线路进行蒙特卡洛抽样，确定雷电天气状态和输电线路状态，生成确定的系统状态，然后进行大电力系统可靠性评估。最后给出在考虑雷电天气下的大电力系统可靠性评估流程，并通过算例说明雷电天气对电力系统可靠性充裕度指标的影响。

Reliability Evaluation of the Bulk Power System with Consideration of the Lightning Weather

Lightning weather will lead to increased transmission line failure rate, which significantly affects the reliability evaluation of bulk power system. Recognizing transmission lines under different lightning levels have different failure rates, different lighting regions are divided according to the lightning flash density, and a transmission line failure rate model is established for the lightning region. A reliability evaluation method of bulk power system considering lightning weather based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. The method makes use of the Monte Carlo sampling of lightning weather and transmission lines to determine the lightning weather conditions and transmission line status and to generate a deterministic system status, and then conducts reliability evaluation of the bulk power system. Finally, the flowchart for the bulk power system reliability evaluation with considerations of lightning weather is provided. Case studies are presented to illustrate the impact of lightning weather conditions on the power system adequacy.