基于多因素权重优化的分布式电源布局预测方法

分布式电源具有投资门槛低、可安装地点多、政策大力支持、地方政府核准备案等特点，因此，分布式电源发展布局受政策的影响相对较小，更趋市场化，可以对未来布局进行预测。分布式电源发展布局的影响因素包括资源条件、项目经济性和电网条件等，需要综合考虑。为准确预测未来各省分布式电源发展规模，引导分布式电源科学规划，提出了一种基于多因素权重优化的分布式电源布局预测方法，综合考虑多种影响因素，并利用历史年份数据优化确定各个影响因素的权重，进而对未来目标年份的分布式电源布局进行预测，具有考虑影响因素全面、因素权重准确、易于软件实现等特点。通过对分布式光伏发电的案例分析，未来中东部地区将成为分布式电源发展重点地区。

A Prediction Method for Distributed Generation Layout Based on Multi-factor Weights Optimization

Distributed generation(DG) is characterized by low investment, flexible installation, strong policy support and easy government approval. The development of distributed generations is impacted less by the government policy and become market-oriented, it is therefore possible to predict the future DG layout. The DG layout needs to consider multiple factors, including the resources conditions, project economy, and power grid conditions. In order to accurately predict the future DG layout for every province and provide guidance for the scientific planning, a prediction method for DG layout is proposed in this paper based on multi-factor weights optimization, in which a variety of factors are considered and the historical data are used to determine the weights of the factors by optimization. The method, being comprehensive in considering influence factors, accurate in determining the factor weights and easy in program coding, can predict DG layout in the target year based on the multiple factors. The case study of PV DG shows that the Central-east China region will be the key area for the DG development.